Our research
Independent analysis on the role of cash in Europe’s economy — monthly Papers and semi-annual Indicators, produced to inform policymakers, institutions and civil society.
Any questions? Write to info@denariaeurope.com
Research committee
Oversees our research programme and editorial standards.
- Carlos Balado
- Francisco Rodríguez
- Josefina del Valle
- Marcos Soria
Papers
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Abstract
This paper updates recent analyses of payment fraud. It finds that the shift from face-to-face to remote channels remains valid but is incomplete: the most significant transformation is now the move from fraud based on stolen credentials to the manipulation of the legitimate payer. While strong customer authentication has notably reduced the card fraud it was designed to address, criminals increasingly induce users to authenticate transfers, share one-time passcodes, enrol compromised cards in digital wallets or invest in fraudulent platforms. Drawing on data from the EEA, the United Kingdom, Australia and the United States, the paper reviews fraud across cards, credit transfers, cash, mobile payments, BNPL and crypto-assets, and concludes that security must expand from authenticating identity to validating intent, the payee and the flow of funds.
Key highlights
- Fraud reported by payment service providers in the EEA rose from €3.4 billion in 2022 to €4.2 billion in 2024, while the aggregate rate remained at around 0.002% of total payment value.
- Users bore approximately 85% of EEA credit transfer losses in 2024, mainly through scams that led them to initiate the payment themselves.
- Card-not-present fraud continues to dominate card losses, and in the EEA card fraud was seventeen times higher when the payee was located outside the EEA.
- In the UK, 70% of authorised push payment fraud cases began on online platforms, showing that victims are usually targeted outside the banking infrastructure.
- Cash presents a different risk profile: euro area counterfeiting fell to 14 counterfeits per million genuine banknotes in 2025, while cash still accounted for 52% of point-of-sale payments in 2024.
- Mobile payments, BNPL and crypto-assets show the largest statistical gaps, with no harmonised fraud rates comparable to the EEA series.
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Abstract
Francisco Rodríguez Fernández
University of Granada and FuncasThe negotiation of the Single Currency Package has revived a question that monetary economics usually leaves implicit: who bears the cost of the infrastructure through which public money reaches the public. A recurrent claim in the debate holds that the online digital euro is subsidised while its offline version, the one closest to cash, is not. This paper separates the three layers of a payment system (issuance and scheme, intermediation, and physical distribution) and documents, from primary sources, who pays for each in the case of cash and of the two forms of the digital euro. The Eurosystem has committed to bearing the scheme and infrastructure costs of both the online and the offline digital euro, including an offline component procured externally, and to charging no scheme or processing fees. The online–offline asymmetry arises only at the intermediation layer, where the Parliament’s mandate would leave offline transactions free of merchant charges. Cash shares the publicly funded issuance layer but relies on a distribution layer that is privately financed and, so far, uncompensated. The paper discusses the competitive implications of these arrangements and their bearing on the legal tender regulation now in trilogue.
Key highlights
- JEL classification: E42, E58, G21, L51.
- Keywords: digital euro, cash, central bank money, payment infrastructure, legal tender, compensation model, two-sided markets.
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Abstract
While cash is often debated in terms of convenience and legality, this study uncovers its lesser-known cognitive, psychological, and developmental benefits. Drawing from neuroscience, behavioral economics, and pedagogy, we show that cash activates neural pain circuits that inhibit overspending, enhances budgeting skills through tangibility, and plays a foundational role in financial literacy for children. Through comparative frameworks and interdisciplinary research, we argue that eliminating cash may have unintended consequences for personal finance, education, and equity. These findings invite a reevaluation of physical currency in a digital-first economy.
Key highlights
- Cash activates the insula, triggering a cognitive "pain of paying" that discourages impulsive spending.
- Cash enhances self-regulation and budgeting via tangibility, fostering cognitive and emotional control.
- Digital exclusion risks magnify when societies eliminate cash, affecting the elderly, poor, and neurodiverse.
- Children develop stronger financial literacy when they engage with physical money compared to digital equivalents.
- Cash has symbolic and ritual value, reinforcing social bonds (e.g., gifting, tipping, donations).
No papers in this category yet.
Indicators
Key cash-access metrics for Europe, published twice a year as a single PDF document.
European Cash Indicators
Three measurement instruments for the quarterly monitoring of cash in Europe, designed for use in public communications, media engagement, and institutional positioning.
Index of Indicators
- Cash Health Index for Europe (CHIE) Composite indicator of 5 variables. Country ranking. Quarterly updates.
- Cash Acceptance Thermometer (CAT) Real acceptance indicator in retail trade. Traffic-light visualization by country.
- Monetary Exclusion Risk Index (MERI) Social vulnerability indicator in the face of cash disappearance.